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Tax & Policy13 May 2026

What Budget 2026 Means for Property Investors

Australia's 2026-27 Federal Budget limits negative gearing to new builds and overhauls capital gains tax. Here is what every investor cohort needs to know.

Important: The measures described were announced on 12 May 2026 in the 2026-27 Federal Budget. As of 13 May 2026, they remain proposed rather than enacted. This material should be treated as educational briefing content, not personal tax advice.

Executive Summary

The 12 May 2026 Budget announced a significant overhaul of Australia's residential property investment taxation framework. Starting 1 July 2027, the Government proposes restricting negative gearing for residential property to new builds exclusively. Established residential properties acquired from 7:30pm AEST on 12 May 2026 onward would have their net losses ring-fenced, allowing offset only against residential property income or residential property capital gains. Holdings acquired before budget night maintain grandfathered status until sale.

The Budget also proposes replacing the 50 percent capital gains tax discount for individuals, trusts and partnerships with CPI cost base indexation plus a 30 percent minimum tax on real capital gains effective 1 July 2027. This change applies prospectively. Gains accrued before 1 July 2027 retain the previous 50 percent discount. Investors in eligible new residential properties retain the option to choose between the old 50 percent discount or the new indexed method.

For investors, the distinction has become stark. Existing holders retain maximum protection on annual deductions. Purchasers of established dwellings between budget night and 30 June 2027 occupy an uncomfortable transition position. Buyers from 1 July 2027 forward encounter the full new regime on established housing, while new builds remain the primary tax-favoured residential pathway.

One critical refinement matters for modelling sale proceeds: a ring-fenced residential loss is not forfeited. It carries forward and can reduce a subsequent residential property capital gain on sale. It does not reduce the indexed cost base. It reduces the post-indexation taxable residential gain. This can materially lower sale-year CGT on affected established properties.

Cohort 1

Existing Portfolio Holders, Acquired Before 12 May 2026

01

Negative Gearing Impact

Existing holdings experience the least disruption under the new framework. If acquired before 7:30pm AEST on 12 May 2026, the investor maintains current negative gearing treatment until sale. There is no announced removal of the salary offset for those grandfathered properties.

Worked Example

Daniel Le, an engineer in Carina, Brisbane, earns $130,000 and owns an established unit in Chermside purchased in 2024 for $680,000.

Purchase price$680,000
Deposit$136,000
Loan$544,000
Annual rent$34,000
Deductions (interest $32,640 + costs $7,100)$39,740
Annual rental loss$5,740
Taxable income (before)$130,000
Taxable income (after)$124,260
Tax saving~$1,722
After-tax cashflow−$4,018

After the reform, Daniel's after-tax cashflow remains −$4,018 because he is grandfathered.

Sale Note

No ring-fenced loss adjustment applies because Daniel's holding is grandfathered.

02

CGT Impact

Existing holders receive only partial protection on exit. Gains accrued before 1 July 2027 retain the 50 percent discount. Gains accrued from 1 July 2027 onward shift to indexed cost base plus the 30 percent minimum CGT rule. Existing investors face protection on historic gains, but incomplete protection on future appreciation.

Worked Example

Priya Nair, a doctor in Nedlands, Perth, earns $230,000 and purchased an established townhouse in 2022 for $500,000.

Purchase price$500,000
Deposit$100,000
Loan$400,000
Annual rent$25,500
Deductions$30,400
Annual rental loss$4,900
Tax payable (before)$69,102
Tax payable (after)~$66,897
After-tax cashflow~−$2,695

If the property reaches $650,000 at 1 July 2027 and sells in 2032 for $950,000, the pre-1 July 2027 gain retains old CGT treatment while the post-1 July 2027 component moves to the new indexed regime.

Sale Note

Priya receives no ring-fenced loss deduction on sale under this specific rule because her property is grandfathered for negative gearing.

03

Superannuation Impact

The 12 May housing package does not verify any direct removal of SMSF property tax settings. Official materials state superannuation funds, including SMSFs, are excluded from the negative gearing change, and Treasury confirms the package does not alter tax arrangements for superannuation as part of this housing measure.

Worked Example

Tahlia Brooks, a business owner in Brighton East, Melbourne, operates a $1.6 million SMSF that purchased a unit in Logan Central for $620,000.

Purchase price$620,000
Deposit$217,000
Limited-recourse loan$403,000
Annual rent$34,720
Deductions (interest $26,195 + costs $6,100)$32,295
Net fund income from property$2,425
Tax inside fund~$364
After-tax fund cashflow~$2,061

Tax inside the fund is approximately $364 before and after the 12 May package. On a sale at $760,000, projected CGT inside the SMSF remains under existing super rules.

Sale Note

No ring-fenced residential loss treatment applies because super funds are excluded from the announced negative gearing restriction.

04

Shares Impact

The negative gearing restriction applies only to residential property. Commercial property and other asset classes such as shares remain subject to existing negative gearing arrangements. The CGT reform, however, applies broadly to assets held by individuals, trusts and partnerships, including shares.

Worked Example

Luke Moran, an IT manager in Mawson, Canberra, earns $110,000 and maintains his 2023 investment unit while purchasing $300,000 of ASX ETFs with a $220,000 split loan.

ETF portfolio value$300,000
Split loan$220,000
Dividends$9,900
Interest$13,200
Other costs$300
Annual investment loss$3,600
Taxable income (after loss)$106,400
Tax saving~$1,080
After-tax cashflow−$2,520

Sale Note

The ring-fenced residential loss rule does not apply to the ETF portfolio.

05

Ability to Offset Losses Against Salary Income

For this cohort, the answer remains yes on grandfathered properties. Existing investors retain the ability to offset rental losses against salary and wages on those holdings.

Worked Example

Grace Hu, a pharmacist in Kensington, Sydney, earns $150,000 and owns a pre-budget-night apartment in Parramatta purchased in 2025 for $850,000.

Purchase price$850,000
Deposit$170,000
Loan$680,000
Annual rent$39,100
Deductions (interest $42,160 + costs $9,400)$51,560
Rental loss$12,460
Taxable income$137,540
Tax payable (after loss)~$31,692
After-tax cashflow~−$7,850

Sale Note

No carry-forward ring-fenced loss is created because Grace remains under the grandfathered rules.

06

CPI Indexation

Existing holders should not assume the new CGT method is invariably worse. On low-real-return assets, CPI indexation can lower CGT materially because the investor is taxed on the real gain after 1 July 2027, not the inflation component.

Worked Example

Mitchell Ryan, a teacher in Battery Point, Hobart, holds an investment unit purchased pre-budget night. Assume he sells a post-2027 asset purchased for $700,000 and sold five years later for $800,000.

Purchase price$700,000
Sale price (5 years later)$800,000
Loan$560,000
Rental yield4.3%
Deductions$36,500
CGT under old 50% discount (30% rate)~$15,000
Indexed cost base (2.5% CPI)~$791,986
Real gain~$8,014
CGT under new indexed method~$2,404

Sale Note

There is no ring-fenced loss deduction here because this cohort's example is not inside the quarantining rule.

07

30 Percent Minimum CGT Rule

The 30 percent minimum CGT rule matters most for investors who expect to realise gains in low-income years. Existing holders can still be caught on the post-1 July 2027 gain component. The exact legislative mechanics are not yet released, but Treasury's design clearly signals a floor on real gains, with income-support recipients exempt.

Worked Example

Zoe Haddad, a semi-retired former project manager in Glenelg, Adelaide, expects taxable income of only $20,000 in the year she sells.

Taxable income in sale year$20,000
Post-1 July 2027 real gain~$20,000
CGT at ordinary rates~$2,800
CGT under 30% minimum floor~$6,000

Unless she qualifies for the income-support exemption, the 30% minimum floor applies and CGT rises to approximately $6,000.

Sale Note

No ring-fenced loss adjustment applies because Zoe's asset is not subject to the new rental loss quarantining.

08

PAYG Tax Refund Implications

Existing holders maintain the familiar tax-return dynamic. If a grandfathered property remains negatively geared, the investor still receives the usual tax benefit through a year-end refund or, where applicable, a PAYG withholding variation.

Worked Example

Aaron Singh, a salaried mining supervisor in New Farm, Brisbane, earns $170,000 and has a pre-budget-night rental loss of $10,792 on his Ipswich investment.

Salary$170,000
Rental loss$10,792
Tax on salary alone~$43,702
Tax after rental loss~$39,709
Annual tax benefit~$3,993
After-tax cashflow (pre-refund)−$10,792
After-tax cashflow (post-refund)~−$6,799

Sale Note

No ring-fenced loss balance builds here.

09

Cashflow Position

For existing holders, short-term cashflow is mostly preserved. The material risk is not holding-year cashflow. It is exit tax after 1 July 2027 and political risk if legislation changes in Parliament.

Worked Example

Olivia Kerr, a solicitor in Merewether, Newcastle, earns $150,000 and maintains a pre-budget-night apartment producing a $12,460 annual loss. Her after-tax holding cashflow stays approximately −$7,850 because she retains the salary offset.

Sale Note

Ring-fenced sale relief is not relevant because Olivia's annual losses are not quarantined.

10

Investor Demand Outlook

Treasury expects lower investor demand overall, slower price growth and a larger owner-occupier share. For this cohort, grandfathered holdings may become relatively more valuable because later buyers of established dwellings face a weaker tax position.

Worked Example

Nathan Bui, an architect in West End, Brisbane, owns a 2025 unit in Morningside worth $720,000. A comparable post-budget entrant buying the same established asset with a $10,792 annual loss would lose the salary offset after 1 July 2027, lowering that buyer's maximum sustainable bid.

Sale Note

Nathan's own loss position remains grandfathered.

11

Government Policy Support and Likely Direction

Government support is now clearly aimed at new supply, not at preserving the old tax settings for established investor stock. The housing package sits beside broader housing and first-home-buyer measures. The Coalition has publicly opposed the tax package, so legislative passage risk remains real.

Worked Example

Chloe Patel, a finance manager in Elwood, Melbourne, holds a 2024 apartment but is considering whether to add another established dwelling. On a new purchase, the policy support now favours a new-build pathway. A comparable $760,000 off-the-plan purchase with a $6,488 annual loss keeps the salary offset and preserves the CGT method choice.

Sale Note

Her current holding still does not create a ring-fenced loss pool.

12

Likely Investor Strategy Response

Existing holders should resist knee-jerk sales. The better sequence is usually to review likely sale timing, model the 1 July 2027 value reset for CGT purposes, and direct any new capital toward new builds, qualifying affordable housing, commercial property, or debt reduction depending on the client profile.

Worked Example

Emma Wren, a GP in Mosman, Sydney, earns $230,000 and owns one grandfathered apartment. She is deciding between another established dwelling and an off-the-plan apartment.

Established option: annual pre-tax loss~$15,630
Established option: salary offset from 1 Jul 2027Removed
New-build option: annual loss$6,488
New-build option: salary offsetRetained
New-build option: CGT method choiceRetained

Sale Note

Emma's existing property does not benefit from ring-fenced loss relief because it does not need it.

13

Overall Impact: Short Term (0-2 Years) and Long Term (3-10 Years)

Short term, the impact is mild for holding-year cashflow because grandfathering protects existing annual deductions. Long term, the impact is mixed because future gains after 1 July 2027 face a tougher exit tax. This remains the least disrupted cohort.

Worked Example

Ben O'Connor, a senior executive in Hamilton, Brisbane, owns a 2025 apartment with an annual rental loss of $12,460 and a projected sale in 2032.

Annual rental loss$12,460
Annual tax benefit (short term)~$4,610
After-tax cashflow (short term)~−$7,850

Long term: if post-2027 growth is strong, sale CGT could be materially higher than old-law expectations.

Sale Note

The ring-fenced loss rule is not part of Ben's sale outcome because his asset is grandfathered.

Cohort 2

New Investors Purchasing Between 12 May 2026 and 30 June 2027

01

Negative Gearing Impact

This is the most exposed cohort for established property. A buyer in this window can still claim negative gearing until 30 June 2027, but from 1 July 2027 the salary offset disappears for established residential property and the loss is ring-fenced. New builds remain exempt.

Worked Example

Mia Tran, a school principal in Greenslopes, Brisbane, earns $110,000 and buys an established townhouse in Moorooka in August 2026 for $720,000.

Purchase price$720,000
Deposit$144,000
Loan$576,000
Annual rent$33,120
Deductions$43,912
Annual loss$10,792

Before 1 July 2027

Taxable income$99,208
After-tax cashflow~−$7,554

From 1 July 2027 (loss ring-fenced)

Taxable income$110,000
After-tax cashflow−$10,792

Sale Note

Only losses that arise from 1 July 2027 onward would join the carry-forward ring-fenced pool.

02

CGT Impact

Cohort 2 gets the worst mix on established property. They buy late enough to lose negative gearing from 1 July 2027, but not late enough to avoid the transition uncertainty. Their future gains from 1 July 2027 also move into the new indexed CGT system.

Worked Example

Jack Saliba, a sales manager in Maroubra, Sydney, earns $150,000 and buys an established unit in Rockdale in February 2027 for $700,000.

Purchase price$700,000
Deposit$140,000
Loan$560,000
Annual rent$31,500
Annual loss$7,900
Sale price (2032)$950,000
Indexed cost base~$791,986
Indexed gain~$158,014
5 years of ring-fenced losses$39,500
Taxable residential gain (after losses)~$118,514
CGT at 45% marginal rate~$53,331

Sale Note

This is the key correction most transition buyers miss. The ring-fenced loss is not lost. It reduces the post-indexation taxable gain on sale.

03

Superannuation Impact

Buying personally in Cohort 2 does not gain protection just because the client also has super. The super carve-out helps SMSFs, not personal holdings. That makes structure comparison more important, but it does not make SMSFs a universal workaround.

Worked Example

Rebecca Ng, a physiotherapist in Mitcham, Melbourne, earns $120,000 and buys an established townhouse personally in 2026 for $680,000.

Purchase price$680,000
Deposit$136,000
Loan$544,000
Annual rent$34,000
Annual loss$5,740
Tax during grace period~$24,530
Tax from 1 July 2027 (loss ring-fenced)$26,252

Sale Note

If Rebecca holds personally, post-1 July 2027 quarantined losses can reduce a later residential capital gain. If she holds through a complying SMSF, the announced quarantining rule does not apply in the same way because super funds are excluded.

04

Shares Impact

Cohort 2 investors are the most likely to compare property with alternatives because they feel both sides of the change. On the income side, leveraged shares remain deductible against salary because the ring-fencing rule only targets residential property. On the CGT side, shares also move to the indexed regime from 1 July 2027.

Worked Example

Tom Willis, a public servant in Dickson, Canberra, earns $110,000 and is deciding between an established unit and a geared ETF portfolio.

ETF portfolio$300,000
Loan$220,000
Dividends$9,900
Interest$13,200
Annual loss$3,600
Taxable income (after loss)$106,400
After-tax cashflow−$2,520

The ETF interest deduction remains fully deductible against salary under existing rules, unlike the residential property loss which would be ring-fenced.

Sale Note

No residential ring-fenced loss pool exists for the ETF path.

05

Ability to Offset Losses Against Salary Income

Cohort 2 can do it only temporarily on established property. That creates a budgeting trap because the first-year refund can mask the full after-tax holding cost from 2027-28 onward.

Worked Example

Sana Rahman, an HR director in Haberfield, Sydney, earns $130,000 and buys an established apartment in Liverpool in June 2027 for $680,000. Annual loss: $5,740.

In 2026-27 (grace period)

Taxable income$124,260
Tax payable$27,530

From 2027-28 (loss ring-fenced)

Taxable income$130,000
Tax payable$29,252
Loss carry-forward$5,740/yr

Sale Note

If Sana accumulates five years of unused ring-fenced losses after 1 July 2027, those losses can later reduce her indexed residential gain on sale.

06

CPI Indexation

For Cohort 2, indexation is not purely negative. On modest-growth assets, CPI indexation can substantially reduce CGT relative to the old 50 percent discount. The real hit for established property is often the loss of annual salary offsets, not the indexed CGT method by itself.

Worked Example

Callum White, an accountant in North Adelaide, earns $110,000 and buys an established unit in 2027 for $700,000. He sells in 2032 for $800,000.

Purchase price$700,000
Sale price (5 years)$800,000
Annual loss$7,100
Indexed gain (after 2.5% CPI)~$8,014
5 years of ring-fenced losses$35,500
Taxable gain$0
Losses remaining after sale~$27,486

Sale Note

This is the scenario where ring-fenced losses matter most. On low-growth assets, they can eliminate CGT altogether.

07

30 Percent Minimum CGT Rule

Cohort 2 is vulnerable to the 30 percent floor because many buyers in this window will plan to sell in a lower-income life stage. The best reading of the announcement is that carried-forward ring-fenced residential losses reduce the indexed gain first, and the minimum tax only applies to any remaining net taxable gain.

Worked Example

Hannah D'Souza buys in 2027, then takes parental leave in the sale year with only $20,000 taxable income.

Indexed gain before ring-fenced losses$20,000
Carried-forward residential losses$12,000
Net taxable gain$8,000
CGT at 30% minimum floor~$2,400

If carried-forward losses were $20,000 or more, net taxable gain would be nil and no floor would apply.

Sale Note

This is a major reason investors should track quarantined losses accurately.

08

PAYG Tax Refund Implications

In 2026-27 this cohort may still get a refund benefit on an established purchase. From 2027-28, that refund largely disappears because the loss no longer offsets salary.

Worked Example

Liam Peric, a nurse manager in Tarragindi, Brisbane, earns $110,000 and buys an established unit with a $10,792 annual loss.

Tax benefit in transition year~$3,238
Tax benefit from 2027-28 (against salary)$0
Annual cashflow deterioration−$3,238

Sale Note

The missing refund is not lost forever if the property is held. Post-1 July 2027 quarantined losses can later reduce a residential gain on sale.

09

Cashflow Position

For established property, cashflow deteriorates mechanically from 1 July 2027 if the law passes. The rent and interest numbers may not change. The tax shield does. That makes highly leveraged established dwellings much harder to hold.

Worked Example

Jade Kumar, a regional bank manager in Newcastle East, earns $110,000 and buys an established townhouse producing a $10,792 annual loss.

After-tax cashflow before 1 July 2027~−$7,554
After-tax cashflow from 1 July 2027−$10,792
Annual deterioration$3,238

Sale Note

If Jade later sells, any accumulated post-1 July 2027 ring-fenced losses can soften the CGT bill, but they do not solve the annual holding cashflow pain.

10

Investor Demand Outlook

Treasury expects lower investor demand in established housing, a modest temporary slowing in price growth and more owner-occupiers. Cohort 2 buyers are in the awkward middle because they buy after the tax value has been challenged but before the market has fully repriced.

Worked Example

Connor Egan, a sales rep in Geelong West, is bidding on a $720,000 established townhouse in 2027. Once he factors in the loss of roughly $3,238 a year in tax relief after 1 July 2027, his maximum sustainable bid is lower than it looked at contract date.

Sale Note

Connor should also recognise that ring-fenced losses may help later on sale, but the market usually prices immediate cashflow pain more heavily than distant CGT relief.

11

Government Policy Support and Likely Direction

The Government is clearly rewarding new supply and explicitly states new builds are exempt so capital is steered there. But passage risk remains because the Opposition has said it will not support the package.

Worked Example

Isabella Zhou, a corporate lawyer in Camberwell, Melbourne, compares two 2027 purchases.

Established dwelling

Annual loss$10,792
Salary tax benefit from 1 Jul 2027Removed

New build ($760,000)

Annual loss$6,488
Salary tax benefitRetained
CGT method choiceRetained

Sale Note

The established asset may later build a ring-fenced loss pool. The new build keeps the ordinary deduction path instead.

12

Likely Investor Strategy Response

Cohort 2 should generally avoid stretching for an established dwelling unless the deal works without the salary-loss subsidy from 1 July 2027. Better fits are genuine new builds, qualifying affordable housing, lower-debt positive cashflow property, or waiting for post-1 July 2027 clarity.

Worked Example

Patrick Osei, a mining engineer in Maylands, Perth, can buy either an established apartment with a $12,460 annual loss or a regional duplex with a $3,630 annual profit.

Established apartment

Annual loss (after 1 Jul 2027)−$12,460
Tax shield from 1 Jul 2027None

Regional duplex

Pre-tax profit$3,630
Tax on profit~$1,089
After-tax cashflow~$2,541

Sale Note

The apartment may still generate a carry-forward pool for sale, but the duplex wins on current survivability.

13

Overall Impact: Short Term (0-2 Years) and Long Term (3-10 Years)

Short term, Cohort 2 can look deceptively fine because a first-year refund may still occur. Long term, it is the most awkward cohort for established property because the annual tax support disappears after 30 June 2027 and future gains fall into the new indexed regime. On new builds, the picture is materially better.

Worked Example

Amelia Russo, a dentist in Glen Iris, Melbourne, buys an established unit in late 2026.

Year 1 (grace period)

Tax saving~$3,238
After-tax cashflow~−$7,554

From 2027-28

After-tax cashflow−$10,792

On sale at $950,000 (bought at $700,000, 5 yrs ring-fenced losses)

Indexed gain~$158,014
5 years ring-fenced losses$39,500
Taxable gain~$118,514
CGT at 45% (without losses)~$71,106
CGT at 45% (with losses)~$53,331

Sale Note

Ring-fenced losses help at exit, but they do not restore the lost annual salary offset.

Cohort 3

New Investors Purchasing from 1 July 2027 Onwards

01

Negative Gearing Impact

From this date, the system is clearer. For established residential property, salary-based negative gearing is gone. For eligible new builds, it stays. Cohort 3 buyers therefore need established-property deals to work on pre-tax yield, value-add, or balance-sheet strategy, not on annual tax refunds.

Worked Example

Sophie Tran, a senior analyst in Ashgrove, Brisbane, earns $110,000 and buys an established townhouse in August 2027 for $720,000.

Established townhouse ($720,000)

Deposit$144,000
Loan$576,000
Annual rent$33,120
Annual loss$10,792
Taxable income$110,000 (unchanged)
After-tax cashflow−$10,792

Qualifying new build (same buyer)

Annual loss$6,488
Taxable income$103,512
Tax saving~$1,946
After-tax cashflow~−$4,542

Sale Note

For the established purchase, every unused annual loss becomes part of the future ring-fenced carry-forward pool.

02

CGT Impact

Cohort 3 is fully inside the new CGT world from day one. There is no grandfathering. Established-property buyers get cost-base indexation and the 30 percent minimum tax on real gains. New-build buyers keep the election between the old 50 percent discount and the new indexed method.

Worked Example

Marcus Bell, a surgeon in Toorak, Melbourne, earns $230,000 and buys an established house for $700,000 in 2028.

Purchase price$700,000
Deposit$140,000
Loan$560,000
Annual loss$7,900
Taxable income (holding years)$230,000 (unchanged)
Sale price (5 years later)$950,000
Indexed cost base~$791,986
Indexed gain~$158,014
5 years ring-fenced losses$39,500
Taxable residential gain~$118,514
CGT at 45% rate~$53,331
CGT without ring-fenced losses~$71,106

Sale Note

This is the cleanest example of how ring-fenced losses directly reduce the taxable amount on sale.

03

Superannuation Impact

Cohort 3 makes the SMSF comparison even sharper. Personal established-property investors lose salary-based negative gearing. Super funds remain excluded from that rule, but SMSF borrowing is still tightly regulated and separate super reforms still matter.

Worked Example

Emily Vu, a consultant in Chatswood, Sydney, considers personal versus SMSF purchase of a $680,000 property.

Personal purchase (established)

Annual loss$5,740
Salary offsetNone
Tax payable$26,252 (unchanged)
After-tax cashflow−$5,740

SMSF purchase (similar asset)

Net fund income~$2,425
Tax inside fundLow (existing super rules)

Sale Note

The ring-fenced residential loss carry-forward applies to the personal established purchase, not to the SMSF in the same way because super funds are excluded from the announced restriction.

04

Shares Impact

Cohort 3 may redirect some capital to geared shares because the residential-property deduction is ring-fenced but share interest deductions remain under existing rules. The CGT regime for shares also moves to indexation.

Worked Example

Joshua Diab, an engineer in Prospect, Adelaide, earns $110,000.

Geared ETF portfolio

Annual loss$3,600
Taxable income (after loss)$106,400
Tax saving~$1,080
After-tax cashflow−$2,520

Established dwelling (for comparison)

Annual loss$10,792
Salary tax reduction$0
After-tax cashflow−$10,792

Sale Note

No residential ring-fenced loss pool applies to the ETF option.

05

Ability to Offset Losses Against Salary Income

For Cohort 3 established-property buyers, the answer is no. Losses are ring-fenced to residential property income and residential property capital gains. New-build buyers still have the salary offset.

Worked Example

Neha Kapoor, a marketing director in Clayfield, Brisbane, earns $130,000 and buys an established apartment for $680,000 with a $5,740 annual loss.

Established apartment

Taxable income$130,000 (unchanged)
Tax payable$29,252

Qualifying new build (same profile)

Taxable income$124,260
Tax payable$27,530
Annual saving vs established$1,722

Sale Note

Neha's annual $5,740 losses would accumulate inside the ring-fenced pool and can later reduce a residential gain on sale.

06

CPI Indexation

Cohort 3 needs to separate annual cashflow pain from exit-tax pain. The annual deduction rule is clearly worse for established property. The CGT outcome under indexation can be either better or worse than the old system depending on the real return.

Worked Example

Ethan Doyle, a teacher in Bellerive, Hobart, buys in 2028 for $700,000 and sells in 2033 for $800,000.

Purchase price$700,000
Sale price$800,000
Annual loss (no salary offset)$7,100
Indexed gain (2.5% CPI)~$8,014
5 years ring-fenced losses$35,500
Taxable gain$0
Losses remaining~$27,486

Sale Note

This is the strongest case for not dismissing the carry-forward mechanism. It can fully offset a low-growth sale.

07

30 Percent Minimum CGT Rule

Cohort 3 is the cleanest cohort for the floor rule because every post-2027 established purchase is fully inside it. The best reading of the Budget design is that the floor applies only after you work out the indexed gain and then subtract any available carried-forward residential losses.

Worked Example

Laura Chen buys in 2028 and sells in a year when her taxable income is only $20,000.

Indexed gain (before losses)$20,000
Carried-forward ring-fenced losses$14,000
Net taxable gain$6,000
CGT at 30% minimum floor~$1,800

If ring-fenced losses were $20,000 or more, there would be no net taxable gain and no minimum tax to apply.

Sale Note

The carry-forward pool is a real sale-year asset for low-income sellers.

08

PAYG Tax Refund Implications

Cohort 3 established-property buyers should budget for no salary-based tax refund from negative gearing. The old rule of 'rental loss means bigger refund' effectively disappears for this cohort on established dwellings. For new builds, it survives.

Worked Example

Cameron West, an operations manager in Marrickville, Sydney, earns $110,000 and buys an established apartment with a $10,792 annual loss.

Expected refund (old mindset)~$3,238
Actual refund against salary (Cohort 3 rules)$0
Annual losses building carry-forward pool$10,792/yr

Sale Note

Cameron's relief comes later, not annually, because those losses can build a carry-forward pool for sale.

09

Cashflow Position

Cohort 3 should price established residential property on full cash burn, not after-tax burn. This is the cohort where lower leverage and stronger yields become far more important.

Worked Example

Sarah Amini, a data specialist in Norwood, Adelaide, compares an established unit against a regional duplex.

Established unit

Pre-tax loss$10,792
After-tax cashflow−$10,792

Regional duplex

Pre-tax profit$3,630
Tax at 30% rate~$1,089
After-tax cashflow~$2,541

Sale Note

Ring-fenced losses may help later on sale, but they do not change the annual holding burden.

10

Investor Demand Outlook

Treasury expects investor demand for established housing to weaken and owner-occupier share to rise. Cohort 3 is the cohort most likely to crystallise that shift because they face the fully reformed rules at purchase.

Worked Example

Adrian Pope, a public-sector lawyer in Kingston, Canberra, is assessing whether to bid on an established terrace. The property would cost him the full $10,792 a year after tax, not the lower after-tax cost that earlier investors could rely on.

Sale Note

He should still model the value of future carry-forward losses, but that will usually not offset today's weaker serviceability.

11

Government Policy Support and Likely Direction

Cohort 3 sits in the world the Government is trying to build, with less tax support for leveraged established housing and more support for new supply, medium density and affordable housing. The main uncertainty is not policy intent. It is legislative passage.

Worked Example

Natalie Smit, a barrister in South Yarra, Melbourne, compares a $720,000 established apartment with a $760,000 off-the-plan apartment.

Established apartment

Annual after-tax loss$10,792
CGT regimeIndexed only

Off-the-plan apartment

Annual after-tax loss~$4,542
CGT regimeChoice of method

Sale Note

Natalie's established option would build a ring-fenced carry-forward pool. The new build would keep the ordinary deduction path.

12

Likely Investor Strategy Response

Cohort 3 strategy should move away from 'buy any established property and let tax carry the first five years'. Better responses are new builds, qualifying affordable housing, build-to-rent exposures, commercial property, strongly cashflow-positive stock, or owner-occupier upgrades.

Worked Example

Corey Iliev, an electrician in Woodville, Adelaide, has $170,000 salary and $180,000 cash.

Established apartment

Annual loss$12,460
Salary offsetNone
Annual holding cost−$12,460

New-build townhouse

Annual loss$6,488
Salary offsetRetained
After-tax cashflow (37% bracket)~−$4,087

Sale Note

The established asset may still deliver sale-year relief through the carry-forward pool, but the holding-year gap is too large for many investors.

13

Overall Impact: Short Term (0-2 Years) and Long Term (3-10 Years)

Short term, established-property strategies become harsher immediately because the old refund logic is gone. Long term, Cohort 3 may actually be the cleanest cohort for disciplined buyers because the rules are known at entry and the market should gradually reprice to them. The likely winners are new-build and yield-led investors, not tax-led speculators.

Worked Example

Ruby Ahmed, a finance analyst in Nundah, Brisbane, buys from July 2027 onward and runs every deal on full after-tax burn.

Rejected: established apartment

Annual after-tax cashflow−$10,792

Chosen: new-build townhouse

Annual after-tax cashflow~−$4,542
CGT methodChoice of method

If she had bought established ($700k, sold at $950k, 5 years)

5 yrs ring-fenced losses$39,500
Indexed gain~$158,014
Taxable gain (after losses)~$118,514
CGT saving vs no losses~$17,775

Sale Note

The carry-forward pool helps. It just does not fully restore the old economics of established-property negative gearing.

What Investors Should Take From This

The headline is not that negative gearing disappears. The headline is that the tax system is being redesigned to favour new housing supply over leveraged purchases of existing stock. Existing holders keep the strongest annual protection. Purchasers of established dwellings between budget night and 30 June 2027 need to be careful not to overpay based on a single year of tax relief. Post-1 July 2027 buyers need to underwrite established property on full holding cost, while recognising that ring-fenced losses can still reduce a later taxable gain on sale.

The second takeaway is just as important. A quarantined loss is not a dead deduction. It becomes a deferred deduction. On strong-growth assets it can materially reduce sale-year CGT. On low-growth assets it can wipe CGT out entirely. Investors who dismiss the carry-forward mechanism will understate the long-term tax value of affected properties. Investors who rely on it too heavily may still underestimate annual cashflow strain.

Personal Tax Advice Warning: Investors should obtain personal advice before acting where a trust, SMSF, pre-1985 asset, low-income sale year, build-to-rent exemption, affordable housing program, or PAYG withholding variation is involved, because those areas depend on structure and on legislation that has not yet been enacted.